NHL Payroll vs. Draft: Which Is More Important?

By John Gilbert (@jgilbertmedia)

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The very first NHL draft was held on June 5, 1963 at the Queen Elizabeth Hotel in Montreal, Quebec. Since then, the draft has increased in both popularity and importance.

Specifically, in 2005, the entire league changed. New rules were put into play and the biggest change of all, a salary cap. The salary cap didn’t just put parity into the league from a spending point of view, it made the draft that much more important. Or did it?

Rich teams, prior to the salary cap, could take risks at the draft and not worry too much if players didn’t pan out. They could always build through trades and free agency because smaller market teams couldn’t afford the high priced players. Now, drafting is important because you want those players to develop and become stars within your own organization. A salary cap makes it hard for larger market teams to go out and sign two or three huge names in free agency. Naturally, some teams can still do it. But how are they doing it?

In 2003- 2004, the top five team salaries were:

Detroit Red Wings        77.8M
New York Rangers        77.0M
Dallas Stars                  67.6M
Philadelphia Flyers      65.1M
Toronto Maple Leafs   61.8M

In 2003- 2004, the bottom five team salaries were:

Nashville Predators      23.2M
Florida Panthers          26.4M
Pittsburgh Penguins     26.6M
Minnesota Wild             26.8M
Atlanta Thrashers         27.2M

Why is it important to know the information listed above? For the teams with the top salaries, most of the time, money did the talking for these teams. The teams with the least amount of money had to focus on scouting and drafting. Some obviously drafted better than others. However, if a team had money AND drafted well, they could maintain a level of success for a long period of time.

Let’s take a look at how all of these teams fared in the drafts around the lockout. These drafts were in 2004, 2005, 2006 and 2007. I have excluded the top 10 picks from each draft because of the caliber of players in that range. Players like Crosby, for example, were no brainers. Granted, not all prospects selected in the top 10 turn out to be what they are thought to be, but that’s always the gamble of the draft and the quality of your scouting staff.

We’ll begin with the teams that had the top five salaries. I have noted the prospects that have played in the league and made at least some impact with their organization.

Detroit Red Wings:

2004 – Round 3 – 97^th Overall – Johan Franzen
2005 – Round 1 – 19^th Overall – Jakub Kindl
2005 – Round 2 – 42^nd Overall – Justin Abdelkader
2005 – Round 5 – 132^nd Overall – Darren Helm
2007 – Round 1 – 27^th Overall – Brendan Smith

The Detroit Red Wings have always been a team that knows how to draft talented players. A lot of the players you see above are now coming into their own as a new wave of youth is sweeping into Hockeytown.

New York Rangers:

2004 – Round 1 – 19^th Overall – Lauri Korpikoski
2004 – Round 2 – 60^th Overall – Brandon Dubinsky
2004 – Round 4 – 127^th Overall – Ryan Callahan
2005 – Round 1 – 12^th Overall – Marc Staal
2005 – Round 2 – 40^th Overall – Michael Sauer
2006 – Round 2 – 54^th Overall – Artem Anisimov
2007 – Round 6 – 168^th Overall – Carl Hagelin

The players on the New York Rangers list shocked me. Many of those players made a huge impact on the team this season. The Rangers are one of the few teams that always had the cash to buy players, the power to draw players to New York, and the ability to succeed at the draft.

Dallas Stars:

2004 – Round 1 – 28^th Overall – Mark Fistric
2004 – Round 2 – 56^th Overall – Nicklas Grossmann
2005 – Round 1 – 28^th Overall – Matt Niskanen
2005 – Round 2 – 33^rd Overall – James Neal
2006 – Round 4 – 120^th Overall – Richard Bachman
2007 – Round 5 – 129^th Overall – Jamie Benn

Dallas is another team that drafted very well over those years. They have traded away a few of those assets, but that’s simply another way to make your team better. Having those assets to be able to make deals for exactly what your team needs.

Philadelphia Flyers:

2005 – Round 1 – 29^th Overall – Steve Downie
2006 – Round 1 – 22^nd Overall – Claude Giroux

The Flyers didn’t exactly blow the doors off with their ability to draft as a whole within this time frame. However, the 2006 pick in the first round turned out to be a home run.

Toronto Maple Leafs:

2005 – Round 1 – 21^st Overall – Tuukka Rask
2006 – Round 2 – 44^th Overall – Nikolai Kulemin
2006 – Round 4 – 99^th Overall – James Reimer
2006 – Round 6 – 161^st Overall – Viktor Stalberg
2007 – Round 7 – 194^th Overall – Carl Gunnarsson

The Leafs, for God knows how long, have not drafted very well. They made a fantastic move by drafting Tuukka Rask, but then decided Andrew Raycroft was a better fit. Not quite.

Now, a look into the five teams with the lowest salaries.

Nashville Predators:

2004 – Round 1 – 15^th Overall – Alexander Radulov
2004 – Round 8 – 258^th Overall – Pekka Rinne
2005 – Round 3 – 79^th Overall – Cody Franson
2005 – Round 7 – 230^th Overall – Patric Hornqvist
2006 – Round 2 – 56^th Overall – Blake Geoffrion
2007 – Round 1 – 23^rd Overall – Jonathan Blum
2007 – Round 2 – 58^th Overall – Nick Spaling

Nashville has a history of being one of the best drafting teams. David Poile and his support staff have set up a foundation on this team that rivals the best. Getting players like Rinne and Hornqvist so late in the draft shows that this team is for real on the draft floor.

Florida Panthers:

2004 – Round 2 – 53^rd Overall – David Booth
2007 – Round 3 – 71^st Overall – Evgeny Dadonov

When I looked over all of the drafts and the players Florida selected, one thing came to mind. BRUTAL! David Booth is truly the lone bright spot over these years and I was generous in putting Dadonov in there. Mainly because he eventually became good in NHL ’12. 

Pittsburgh Penguins:

2004 – Round 2 – 61^st Overall – Alex Goligoski
2004 – Round 4 – 99^th Overall – Tyler Kennedy
2005 – Round 3 – 62^nd Overall – Kris Letang
2005 – Round 7 – 195^th Overall – Joe Vitale
2006 – Round 2 – 32^nd Overall – Carl Sneep
2007 – Round 6 – 171^st Overall – Dustin Jeffrey

Either the Pittsburgh Penguins are good at what they do, or they have a collection of lucky horseshoes and constantly walk funny. This team drafts so well it isn’t even funny to any other team in the league. Keep in mind, the players listed above don’t include Evgeni Malkin, Sidney Crosby or Jordan Staal. All three were drafted in these years, but were top 10 picks.

Minnesota Wild:

2004 – Round 3 – 79^th Overall – Clayton Stoner
2004 – Round 4 – 111^th Overall – Ryan Jones
2004 – Round 7 – 206^th Overall – Anton Khubodin
2005 – Round 2 – 57^th Overall – Matt Kassian
2006 – Round 3 – 72^nd Overall – Cal Clutterbuck
2007 – Round 4 – 110^th Overall – Justin Falk

The names on the Minnesota Wild list are certainly far from overwhelming. Keep in mind though, this team has had success with trades so it has eased the pain of the draft. If the Wild can put together a couple of great drafts, look out!

Atlanta Thrashers:

2005 – Round 2 – 41^st Overall – Ondrej Pavelec
2006 – Round 1 – 12^th Overall – Bryan Little

Oh, Atlanta. Clearly the two names listed here are very important pieces to the Winnipeg Jets right now. The rest of the names that were drafted could be a brand of European vodka or a noodle dish so hot that my earlobes would sweat for all I know. Basically, to sum it up, the drafts weren’t good.

During my research, I thought for sure that I would find the top salary teams with terrible draft selections across the board. A majority of them drafted well and you are seeing their reward in the game today. Teams with little money to spend in the past and a bad drafting record have given themselves a permanent seat in the basement until recently.

In the words of rap artist Jelleestone,

“Money can’t buy me happiness.”

Turns out, drafting well can!